AGP Executive Report

Israel-Lebanon Diplomacy: The US Embassy in Beirut says Israel and Lebanon will resume formal talks in October (eighth round) in Rome, even after President Joseph Aoun ruled out new negotiations for now; the talks aim to implement a US-brokered security framework, but disputes over withdrawal, security arrangements, and implementation remain, with Lebanon citing about 7,700 Israeli violations since June 26. Southern Lebanon on Edge: As Israel expands control and demolishes Hezbollah-linked infrastructure, residents fear return is becoming impossible; reports also describe a localized Israeli redeployment toward Beaufort Castle after tunnel destruction on Ali al-Taher Ridge, while shelling and explosions continue across towns like Al-Mansouri, Tyre, Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun. UNIFIL Mandate Fight: Lebanon has asked the UN Security Council to extend UNIFIL beyond Dec. 31, 2026, arguing it’s premature to end the mission; France and many council members reportedly support the request, while Israel opposes it and Hezbollah rejects disarmament. Regional Power Politics: At BRICS in New Delhi, Iran’s Pezeshkian urged trade in national currencies and warned that sanctions and military aggression undermine security and food welfare, while BRICS leaders issued a New Delhi Declaration calling for restraint and opposing forced displacement. Humanitarian Pressure: UN migration reporting says renewed fighting in Yemen has displaced 85,818 people, including thousands fleeing toward Djibouti as the Houthis seize the Bab al-Mandeb corridor.

Lebanon-Israel Talks: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reiterated there are “no new negotiations” with Israel for now, while the next round of the U.S.-brokered Trilateral Framework is set to shift to Washington with ambassadors meeting before a formal Rome session in October. Southern Lebanon Recovery: PM Nawaf Salam held a preparatory meeting on return and reconstruction in the south, ordering damage assessments, rubble removal, and restoration of electricity, water, and telecoms, with funding to come from LEAP and other relief channels. UNIFIL and Sovereignty Debate: A new analysis revisits what UNIFIL’s 48-year mission has (and hasn’t) solved, arguing Lebanon must move from managing conflict to addressing the causes—state authority, Hezbollah’s arms, and the war/peace decision. Security Developments: Lebanese authorities detained a relative of ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad in northeast Lebanon on weapons and drug charges. Regional Escalation Watch: BRICS leaders in New Delhi urged “maximum restraint,” opposed forced displacement in Gaza, and called for protection of civilians and sovereignty amid West Asia tensions; Iran’s Pezeshkian pressed BRICS to defend non-use of force. Humanitarian Aid: France said it will triple humanitarian support to Lebanon, sending 60 tons of supplies for displaced people.

Lebanon-Israel Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun said there are “no new negotiations with Israel at present,” reiterating Lebanon’s priorities: Israeli withdrawal, the return of prisoners and displaced people, and reconstruction. He also framed his surprise Nabatieh visit as a signal that the state is the guarantor for southern communities amid renewed strikes. Southern Lebanon Security: Reports say Israeli operations around the Ali al-Taher ridge included demolition of underground Hezbollah facilities, with seismic tremors recorded; Lebanon’s officials and residents are focused on what comes next after the destruction. Humanitarian Pressure: The ICRC warned that humanitarian needs remain critical, with over 334,000 people still displaced as of late August and major gaps in healthcare access and water services. Regional Diplomacy via BRICS: BRICS leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration, calling for maximum restraint in West Asia and urging Israel to withdraw from occupied Lebanese territories while also reaffirming Syria’s sovereignty. Energy & Infrastructure Tensions: Arab and Islamic countries, including Lebanon, condemned attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline as violations of sovereignty and international law, while Iraq said the attacks originated from its territory and the U.S. suggested Iran was “probably” behind them.

Southern Lebanon Security: President Joseph Aoun made a rare, unannounced visit to Nabatieh, pledging that “no new negotiations” with Israel are happening now, as residents demand protection and the state promises follow-up on displacement and reconstruction after Israeli strikes near the Ali al-Taher ridge. Diplomacy & Talks: U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks were pushed from Rome to October; ambassadors are set to meet in Washington next week to discuss implementing the June framework, including “pilot zones” and Hezbollah disarmament—while Lebanon and Israel trade blame over pace and ongoing strikes. Hezbollah/Israel Escalation: Israel’s demolition of underground fortifications on Ali al-Taher triggered a reported 4.1 tremor and renewed fears of further attacks, with Lebanon warning the campaign undermines sovereignty and disarmament efforts. Regional Pressure Beyond Lebanon: In Yemen, Houthis seized the Mayun island near Bab el-Mandeb, raising shipping risks; Iran-linked pressure on chokepoints is also framed as part of a wider regional squeeze. Human Rights: Tunisia rights groups say at least 23 prisoners died in recent weeks amid extreme heat and overcrowded conditions.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israel intensified strikes and demolitions across Tyre district and the Ali al-Taher ridge, including blowing up much of a public school in Mansouri and detonating explosives near Nabatieh al-Fawqa; Lebanon’s geophysics center said the blasts registered seismic activity around a 4.1 magnitude tremor, while Israel framed Ali al-Taher as a major Hezbollah tunnel/infrastructure hub. Framework Agreement Tensions: The operations came despite the US-mediated framework agreement, with Israel’s military and officials signaling continued “fire control” and warning the Lebanese army to prove its role on the ground. Yemen–Red Sea Shockwaves: In parallel, Iran-backed Houthis seized Perim/Mayun island at Bab el-Mandeb and advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, prompting Saudi Arabia to shut down a major oil pipeline after attacks—raising fears of new pressure on global shipping and energy prices. US–Iran Political Pressure: US President Trump again tied the Iran war timeline to the midterms, while calls to halt escalation in Yemen grew amid reports of Saudi efforts to persuade Washington to strike Houthi targets. Lebanon Diplomacy/State Signals: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met the Armenian ambassador, discussing bilateral ties and invitations for Armenia’s leadership to visit.

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Israel says it demolished Hezbollah’s tunnel network under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, triggering a 4.1-magnitude tremor; Netanyahu and Katz frame it as “operational control” consolidation, while Lebanon and UN-linked reporting warn the blasts deepen tensions amid stalled implementation of the framework on disarmament. UN & Sovereignty Claims: Lebanon’s UN mission accuses Israel of nearly 2,000 land, air and sea violations of Lebanese sovereignty in July, with details withheld in a letter published on the UN website. US Sanctions on Hezbollah Networks: The US Treasury expands “Operation Economic Outcast” with fresh sanctions targeting networks supporting Kataib Hezbollah and Hezbollah across Iraq, Lebanon and beyond, aiming to cut off funding and sanctions evasion channels. Regional Pressure on Shipping: Separate reporting says Houthis seized Mokha and advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, raising stakes for Bab al-Mandeb and global shipping as oil prices react. Beirut Port Deal: CMA CGM broke ground on a US$100m Beirut terminal expansion, aiming to more than double capacity to 2.8m TEU by 2028 and strengthen Beirut’s role as a Levant container hub.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israel says it has destroyed Hezbollah’s underground command and tunnel network on Ali al-Taher Ridge after taking operational control above and below ground, with a reported 4.1 tremor following the blasts; the IDF claims the infrastructure included rockets, missiles, UAVs, anti-tank weapons, mines, and a central Badr Unit command complex. US-Lebanon Sovereignty Push: The US State Department and US Embassy urge Lebanon to assert sovereignty in the south and begin a disarmament plan for Hezbollah under the June Trilateral Framework, drawing sharp Hezbollah condemnation. Sanctions Pressure: The US Treasury expands “Operation Economic Outcast” with new Iran-linked sanctions targeting individuals and companies in Iraq and also covering networks tied to Hezbollah and Kata’ib Hezbollah. Regional War of Signals: Netanyahu warns Iran is trying to restore nuclear capabilities and vows continued action; Israel’s defense minister reiterates threats to strike Iranian energy facilities if Iran attacks. Humanitarian/Impact Claims: Lebanon’s agriculture minister says Israeli attacks damaged over 22.5% of southern agricultural land (more than 56,000 hectares). Rights Watch: HRW renews scrutiny of Hezbollah’s alleged cluster-munition use, calling for independent investigation.

Lebanon–Israel Security: The Lebanese Army says Israel has violated the ceasefire framework about 7,700 times since June 26, while Israel continues strikes and evacuation warnings in the south, with reports of civilian deaths and renewed fears of escalation. UN Diplomacy: UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the intensification and urged IDF withdrawal; the IDF rejected the criticism, insisting operations target “military” sites and that precautions are taken. State vs. Hezbollah: The US Embassy in Beirut said southern Lebanon “does not belong to regional actors or militias,” backing Lebanese state institutions as the army expands deployment conditions in the south. Human Rights & Weapons: Human Rights Watch warned Hezbollah’s reported cluster munition use may amount to a war crime, highlighting long-term risks from unexploded submunitions. Regional Shockwaves: Iran expanded its Hormuz restricted/no-go zone and attacked vessels; oil prices pushed above $100 as US-Iran maritime clashes intensify, feeding wider regional instability.

Budget Protests: Retired Lebanese soldiers escalated in Beirut’s Riad al-Solh, pressing for 2027 budget wage reforms and warning they may block Cabinet sessions until salary value is restored. Southern Lebanon Security: President Joseph Aoun chaired a security meeting focused on Nabatieh, stressing the Lebanese Army’s role to prevent a “security vacuum” and to strengthen Lebanon’s negotiating position; meanwhile the army says Israel has carried out about 7,700 ceasefire framework violations since June, including attacks on residential areas and the killing of families in Kfar Roummane. Nabatieh on Edge: The Lebanese Army increased patrols and fixed/mobile deployments in Nabatieh after political contacts aimed at reassuring residents and reducing Israeli pretexts for targeting the city. Ceasefire Friction on the Ground: The army reports operational-control measures—checkpoints, observation posts, road clearances, and confiscation of weapons—while Israel continues strikes across multiple southern areas. Arab League Pushback: The Arab League Council adopted a resolution backing Lebanon’s sovereignty and rejecting Hezbollah’s military activities and Iranian foreign influence, calling for support to help the army secure territory. International Pressure on Lebanon’s War Context: A report alleges CUNY investments in weapons firms supplying Israel, adding to the growing political debate over institutional ties during the Gaza-Lebanon escalation. Regional War Spillover: Iran’s IRGC outlined new conditions for ending the war and expanded a maritime “confrontation zone,” as Houthis in Yemen warn of wider regional consequences for Red Sea navigation.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: UN chief António Guterres warned that Israeli operations in Nabatieh are escalating fast, with reports of strikes hitting hospitals, healthcare workers, and restrictions on humanitarian access, as UNIFIL recorded a sharp rise in activity and Lebanon’s health ministry reported 27 killed and 69 wounded over the weekend into Monday. Ali al-Taher Heights as a Political Lever: Analysis says Israel’s claimed control of the Ali al-Taher ridge is no longer just a battlefield move; it risks turning occupied ground into a long-term “security reality” north of the Litani, with continued strikes and civilian harm suggesting the fight is about imposing terms after the fighting ends. Lebanon-Israel Talks in Limbo: US-brokered negotiations are set to be split between Rome and Florida, with pilot-zone discussions delayed until after Israel’s elections, leaving Lebanon’s leadership pessimistic about Washington pushing Israel to curb escalation. Hezbollah vs US Ambassador: Hezbollah officials denounced remarks by the US ambassador to Lebanon as attempts to shift blame, reiterating that Shiites did not take up arms for “fun” and framing Iran’s support as tied to resisting occupation. Regional War Spillover: The US said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers as Iran retaliated with missile strikes on US-linked targets in Jordan, while Switzerland called for independent investigations into alleged abuses across the Middle East. Humanitarian & Civilian Impact: A strike near an Al-Manar TV crew in Nabatieh wounded a journalist and cameraman, and Lebanon’s army said it rescued 22 migrants after a boat broke down off Tripoli.

UN Lebanon File: UN chief António Guterres condemned the intensification of Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, especially around Nabatieh, citing mounting civilian deaths, hospital strikes, and “anguish” from evacuation orders, while urging an immediate halt and respect for UN Security Council Resolution 1701. UNIFIL Future: Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon said any push to extend UNIFIL’s mandate after Dec. 31 is a mistake, arguing Lebanon’s army should take over border security as the Security Council weighs options. Southern Lebanon Escalation: Reports say contacts by President Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Nawaf Salam, and Arab/international efforts helped “pacify” Nabatieh after 27 killed and 69 wounded in three days, with Washington attributing the escalation to Hezbollah drone activity. Lebanon’s Deposits Crisis: BDL governor Karim Souaid says an audit found irregularities tied to about $24bn (roughly 30% of claims) within Lebanon’s $79bn obligations to banks and depositors, with a draft financial gap law expected to reach Parliament by end-September and repayment questions turning on gold reserves. Regional Pressure on Israel: The UK announced sanctions on West Bank settlement goods, accusing Israel of enabling “ethnic cleansing,” prompting Israeli counter-measures including shutting the UK consulate in East Jerusalem. Humanitarian Weapons: A monitor report says cluster munitions caused at least 1,063 casualties worldwide in 2025, with civilians the vast majority and Lebanon among the affected countries. Energy Link: Jordan approved supplying Lebanon with natural gas via Aqaba and transport through Syria, aiming to ease Lebanon’s power shortages.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israeli airstrikes on Nabatieh and nearby towns killed at least 12 people, including two children, with reports of a paramedic among the dead and fresh evacuation warnings as Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah-linked sites despite a ceasefire. Ali al-Taher & “Grey Line” Politics: Coverage frames Israel’s push around the Ali al-Taher ridge and tunnel destruction as reshaping the negotiation battlefield and Lebanon’s leverage, while Lebanese officials warn the attacks undermine de-escalation efforts. UNIFIL Mandate Fight: Lebanon’s push to renew UNIFIL faces resistance, with debate over whether a European alternative or a US-backed monitoring framework could replace the UN role in the south. Lebanon’s Banking Aftershock: Analysis revisits how seven years after the 2019 collapse, banks remain in survival mode, with depositors still demanding accountability and reforms stalled by unresolved blame. Gulf Tensions & Strait of Hormuz: Iran warns Korea and the US about “serious consequences” and threatens retaliation over attacks on assets, as it also signals new restrictions in the Persian Gulf—pushing oil prices higher. Beirut Diplomacy: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed held talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, reaffirming support and discussing security and stability inside Lebanon. Humanitarian/Legal Pressure: A new report highlights continued civilian harm from cluster munitions, adding to international pressure on states party to the ban treaty.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israeli strikes across Nabatieh and nearby towns killed at least 27 people and wounded 69, with repeated reports of women, children, and paramedics among the dead, including attacks on Kfar Rumman and a drone strike on a vehicle carrying medics. Framework Agreement Under Strain: Lebanese officials say the attacks violate the US-brokered framework and the ceasefire, with President Joseph Aoun warning the violence is a dangerous escalation and urging US and international action. Ali al-Taher / Security Zone Push: Reporting says Israel is tightening control around Ali al-Taher heights and preparing engineering actions near Beaufort, while conditioning any withdrawal on political arrangements. UNIFIL Aftermath: Aoun backed renewing UNIFIL’s mandate and welcomed a French-Italian push for a European presence after UNIFIL ends, with Lebanon coordinating on options to avoid a security vacuum. Arab League Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi chaired Arab League talks in Cairo focused on illegal Israeli measures in occupied Jerusalem and warned aggression could escalate in the West Bank. Regional Contacts: Aoun also held calls with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed on security and stability, while Lebanon and the UAE exchanged support messages. Israel Politics Spillover: In Israel’s election campaign, Gadi Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of prioritizing political survival over security, as Netanyahu’s rhetoric also escalates threats toward the Palestinian Authority.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israeli strikes across Nabatiyeh killed at least 11 people, including two children and two medics, with reports of casualties in Kfar Rumman and wider raids in the district; in Deir al-Zahrani, the IDF ordered evacuations near a site it said was tied to Hezbollah before striking the area. Ceasefire Friction: Israel says Hezbollah repeatedly violates the June ceasefire, citing drone attacks and alleged weapons activity in civilian areas, while Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun calls the strikes a dangerous escalation and urges US and international action. Humanitarian Fallout: Lebanese state media and health officials report mounting deaths and injuries, including attacks on or near infrastructure such as Ghandour hospital (reported destroyed despite being out of operation). Diplomatic/Detention Track: Five Lebanese detainees were returned from Israel to Lebanon via the ICRC, framed by Israeli media as a goodwill step amid ongoing US-mediated talks. Regional Pressure Beyond Lebanon: Iran escalated Hormuz threats by announcing a new restricted “exclusion zone,” while US-Iran tit-for-tat ship strikes continued to ripple through regional security calculations.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and the Arab League condemned renewed Israeli strikes on Nabatieh and nearby towns, saying attacks hit Lebanese state institutions and health facilities, including the out-of-service Ghandour Hospital, and called on the US and the international community to act urgently. Casualty Updates: Lebanon’s health ministry reported three killed in a Nabatieh al-Tahta drone strike and said the overall toll from the latest aggression has reached 4,362 martyrs and 12,378 wounded, with additional deaths and injuries recorded over the past day. Evacuation Warnings & Dispute: Israel said it struck after Hezbollah launched drones toward troops in the “security zone” and issued an evacuation notice for Arab Salim; Lebanon’s state media and AFP described civilian deaths, including two women, and damage to homes. Military Posture: Israel’s chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned of a “tense and volatile” period and readiness for surprise attacks, while reports said Israel is weighing a redeployment plan that would tighten its footprint to a new “Gray Line.” Energy & Governance: Lebanon’s cabinet approved supplying natural gas via Jordan’s Aqaba port and regasification through Syria to support electricity generation. Regional Politics & Narrative: Aoun’s calls for US action and Speaker Nabih Berri’s condemnation of “ballot box of blood” rhetoric ahead of elections dominated the political reaction. Culture Amid War: Palestinian football resumed with the “1,000 Martyrs Cup,” including teams from the West Bank, Gaza, and refugee camps in Lebanon.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israel ordered residents of Arab Salim to evacuate after Hezbollah launched two drones at IDF troops in the “security zone,” then carried out strikes that Lebanon says killed four and wounded 20, with reports of artillery blocking ambulance access. Strategic Hill Fight: Months after a ceasefire, fighting over the Ali al-Taher ridge and its tunnels continues, with Israel claiming operational control after clearing routes used by Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Security Politics: Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji reportedly stopped going to his office after security warnings and threats tied to his anti-Hezbollah stance, raising fears of intimidation inside state institutions. Regional Threat Outlook: Israel’s National Security Council warned of rising terror threats to Israelis and Jews abroad ahead of the High Holy Days, pointing to Iran and proxies as the main driver. US-Iran Maritime Tensions: The wider Iran–US conflict spilled into shipping again after US strikes on Iranian-linked tankers, with Iran threatening broader retaliation and warning against further escalation. Diplomacy & De-escalation Signals: Lebanon’s PM held calls with regional counterparts on de-escalation, while Qatar and the Arab League council discussed Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon-related developments.