AGP Executive Report

Explosives Probe: Lebanon’s military-court commissioner referred two seizures to army intelligence and the Internal Security Forces for further investigation. Authorities say nearly 800 kilograms of explosives were seized at Dahr al-Baidar, where two men were arrested; a separate 200-kilogram cache was intercepted near Al-Qasr, but two suspects fled into Syria. The Dahr al-Baidar detainees reportedly said they were transporting explosives for Hezbollah. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has vowed firm action against illegal weapons. EU Security Mission: Lebanon welcomed a new three-year EU mission to support its military and security forces, as the bloc prepares for UNIFIL’s eventual departure. Hezbollah Aid and Disarmament: Hezbollah announced housing and furniture aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs, and up to $12,000 elsewhere, paid in four installments. It did not disclose the program’s total cost. A September poll of 800 Shia respondents found 66.4% supported transferring Hezbollah’s weapons to the state. Saudi Ties: President Joseph Aoun condemned attacks on Saudi civilian facilities and expressed Lebanon’s solidarity in a call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Weapons Probe: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam vowed a full investigation after authorities seized a truck carrying about 780 kilograms of explosives, including TNT and C4. Two people have been referred to judicial authorities, and officials say the inquiry will pursue others involved. EU Security Support: President Joseph Aoun welcomed a three-year EU mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces, backing efforts to extend state authority and strengthen border controls as UNIFIL prepares to depart. Cross-Border Tensions: Israeli artillery fire in southern Lebanon reportedly killed a retired Lebanese soldier, while unexploded munitions and landmines continue to endanger residents. Israel says a separate blast on a school trip near the border, which killed a teenager and injured 24, was caused by a leftover Hezbollah munition. US-Lebanon Ties: Beirut welcomed Washington’s move to lift decades-old restrictions on direct air travel between the two countries.

EU Security Mission: The bloc approved a three-year mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces, focusing on border and maritime security, counter-smuggling and internal security as UNIFIL’s future remains uncertain. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam vowed a thorough investigation after authorities seized a truck carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives, including C-4, allegedly linked to Hezbollah. The military judiciary has widened its probe, while the army separately seized about 200 kilograms of explosives being smuggled from Syria. Southern Front: Israeli shelling and military activity continue despite the ceasefire; a retired Lebanese soldier was killed. A New York Times investigation found Israeli forces had largely demolished 48 of roughly 60 villages in occupied southern Lebanon, mostly after the ceasefire took effect. US-Lebanon Ties: President Trump lifted decades-old restrictions on US-Lebanon flights, a move welcomed by President Joseph Aoun and described by the US Embassy as a sign of confidence in Lebanon’s future.

Security Probe: Lebanese judges have widened the investigation into 500 kilograms of explosives seized on the Bekaa–Beirut highway. Two detainees are accused of links to Hezbollah, and investigators are seeking others allegedly involved amid fears of political violence. South Lebanon: Israeli artillery killed retired Lebanese soldier Ali Abdul Hassan Sweidan while he inspected his land in Yater, the army said. A separate explosion from remnants of earlier attacks killed one person near Froun. Lebanon’s reported toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 stands at 4,386 dead and 12,413 wounded. UNIFIL and Army Support: The EU backs extending UNIFIL’s mandate and is preparing a mission to train and support the Lebanese army, as officials warn against a security vacuum if peacekeepers leave without a replacement. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says full sovereignty requires the state to control decisions on war and peace. President Joseph Aoun has called negotiations an alternative to war with Israel. US-Lebanon Ties: Beirut welcomed Washington’s decision to lift decades-old restrictions on direct flights, though a restart date has not been announced.

Southern Front: Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit several southern Lebanese towns on Sunday despite the June U.S.-brokered framework deal, which envisages an Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment. Lebanon’s reported death toll from Israeli attacks since March has reached 4,386. UNIFIL’s Future: Lebanon faces the prospect of UNIFIL’s departure without a replacement. An expected EU mission would train and support the Lebanese army, but would not take over the U.N. force’s monitoring role, raising fears of a security vacuum in the south. Security and Disarmament: Lebanese forces seized 500 kilograms of explosives from a vehicle at Dahr al-Baidar and arrested two men described by a judicial source as suspected Hezbollah members. The case is intensifying pressure on the government to assert state control over weapons. Regional Ties: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport and reaffirmed Lebanon’s solidarity with Saudi Arabia. Separately, Beirut welcomed Washington’s move to lift long-standing restrictions on direct U.S.-Lebanon flights, which the U.S. Embassy said signals confidence in Lebanon’s future.

Border Security: Israeli forces are searching near the Western Galilee after an unidentified object crossed from Lebanon; its origin and type remain unclear. The incident comes amid continued Israeli strikes, including a drone attack in eastern Lebanon that wounded six. Casualties: Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed 4,386 people and injured 12,424 since March 2, bringing the toll since October 2023 to 8,953 dead and 30,660 injured. US Flights: Beirut welcomed Washington’s decision to lift decades-old restrictions on direct air links. The move clears a regulatory hurdle, but flights will not resume automatically. UNIFIL Transition: The EU is preparing a Lebanon security mission of about 100 personnel as UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its end, raising questions about future international support. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has stressed that decisions on war and peace must rest with state institutions, as pressure grows for the government to assert control over security policy.

Border Security: An Israeli drone strike near Hawsh al-Sayyed Ali wounded six people, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said. Israel said it targeted a Syrian operative it accused of planning attacks; a separate suspected drone alert in southern Lebanon remains under review. State Authority: Military Police are questioning two men after security forces reportedly found hundreds of kilograms of explosives in their car at Dahr al-Baydar. The investigation is examining whether others were involved. US Ties: President Joseph Aoun welcomed Washington’s decision to lift its decades-old ban on direct flights to Lebanon. Flights will not resume immediately: officials say aviation talks and safety work are still needed. UNIFIL’s Future: The EU is preparing a roughly 100-person mission to support and train the Lebanese army as UNIFIL’s mandate winds down.

Border Escalation: An Israeli drone strike near Hermel wounded six people, including five Syrians and one Lebanese national. Israel said it targeted a Syrian militant; attacks also continued in the south, where reports said journalist Amal Khalil was killed and an Israeli officer died in a military vehicle accident. EU Security Role: The EU is preparing a roughly 100-person mission to train and support Lebanon’s army as UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its end, while also backing an extension of the UN peacekeeping force. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the new mission would bolster Lebanese forces, not replace UNIFIL. State Authority and Talks: President Joseph Aoun said Lebanon cannot abandon negotiations with Israel, as he pressed for state authority and stability. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has likewise tied Lebanon’s recovery to restoring sovereignty and advancing reforms.

Border Escalation: An Israeli drone strike in eastern Lebanon wounded six people. Journalist Amal Khalil was also killed in an Israeli airstrike, while an Israeli officer died and three soldiers were hurt in a Humvee rollover in southern Lebanon. Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun says Lebanon must keep negotiating with Israel, warning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could escalate for electoral gain. Talks in Tampa have no confirmed date and may be delayed until after Israel’s election. European Mission: The EU is expected to approve a mission of more than 100 personnel to support Lebanon’s army and security forces; it would not deploy in the south. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam linked recovery and reconstruction to reforms, restored state sovereignty and exclusive government control over decisions of war and peace. Government Strain: Energy Minister Joe Saddi is considering resignation amid a dispute over funding for the electricity utility, which needs far more than the government’s proposed $50 million credit. Legal Change: Lebanon abolished the death penalty in August, a milestone cited by international parliamentarians pressing for worldwide abolition.

Southern Front: An Israeli officer was killed and three soldiers injured when a Humvee overturned during an operation near the Litani River, according to the IDF. Israeli forces remain in parts of southern Lebanon, while strikes and reports of gunfire near a UNIFIL position underscore the fragility of the truce. EU Support: Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says the EU plans a roughly 100-person mission to advise and support Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces, mainly from Beirut. The bloc also backs extending UNIFIL’s mandate, rather than leaving a security gap. Displacement and Hezbollah: Hezbollah says it is close to distributing shelter payments to families displaced by the war. Reuters reported the group received $200 million from Iran; Washington disputes that account. The payments come as Beirut faces pressure to strengthen state authority in the south. Cost of Living: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam acknowledged the strain on households from fuel, electricity, tuition and medical bills, and outlined government plans spanning energy, social support, housing and public transport.

EU–Lebanon Ties: Visiting EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc backs extending UNIFIL’s mandate to avoid a security vacuum and plans a training mission for Lebanon’s army. Beirut is seeking EU support to end Israel’s occupation and put all weapons under state control. Southern Front: President Joseph Aoun said negotiations are the alternative to war and accused Israel of failing to meet its commitments. An Israeli officer was killed and three soldiers injured when a military vehicle overturned during an operation in southern Lebanon; UNIFIL also reported gunfire near a border post. Energy and Reform: Energy Minister Joe Saddi advanced two licensed solar projects, while the 2027 budget may fund low-interest loans to help households install solar systems. Aoun reiterated a commitment to reforms and a financial gap law needed for an IMF deal. Hezbollah Funding: Reports citing sources say Iran sent Hezbollah $200 million for families displaced by the war, drawing attention to the group’s financing as Lebanon faces pressure to consolidate state authority.

Southern Front: Israeli troops remain in villages near West Zawtar, where residents describe nearby patrols and demolitions. A U.S.-backed plan for gradual Israeli withdrawals has stalled after its first pilot zone; UNIFIL also reported gunfire at one of its posts. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says decisions on war and peace must remain within state institutions. Samir Geagea called Hezbollah’s disarmament a Lebanese necessity, sharpening a dispute over who controls security policy. Hezbollah Funding: Sources say Iran sent the group $200 million to aid families displaced by war. Hezbollah confirmed funds had been secured, but U.S. officials deny the reported transfer. Lebanon and Accountability: A BBC-NPR investigation reports that former Syrian general Bassam al-Hassan is living in Beirut under an alleged arrangement involving U.S. and Lebanese authorities, tied partly to information about missing American journalist Austin Tice.

Israel Talks and UNIFIL: Lebanon’s delegation plans to seek an Israeli withdrawal from towns near Beaufort Castle, the release of Lebanese detainees and an international force to replace UNIFIL when its mandate ends in December. UNIFIL says gunfire struck its Kfar Shouba post, with no injuries. Hezbollah and State Authority: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea called Hezbollah’s disarmament a Lebanese necessity and accused Speaker Nabih Berri of obstructing election changes. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said decisions on war and peace must remain with state institutions. Iranian Funding Dispute: Reuters, citing two sources, reported Iran sent Hezbollah $200 million for displaced families; a Hezbollah official said funds were secured. The U.S. State Department disputed the report, calling it false. Economic and Cabinet Tensions: President Joseph Aoun warned against politicizing Lebanon’s economic situation and said officials were working to maintain monetary stability. Energy Minister Joe Saddi said he would boycott Cabinet sessions until the government acts on electricity-sector issues.

Lebanon Power Crisis: Energy Minister Joe Saddi faced tough questions on why Lebanon’s grid keeps failing, saying the core problem is a generation-capacity deficit: existing plants cover only about a third of demand, forcing decades of reliance on private generators, while over $25 billion of depositors’ funds was reportedly spent on fuel instead of building larger plants; he also outlined a push for private power investment, with the IFC tasked to study and recruit international IPPs, though investors demanded security and political stability before committing major sums. Israel-Lebanon Security Talks: “Stability in Southern Lebanon” was flagged as the top agenda for the next round of talks with Israel, as cross-border tensions remain central to regional diplomacy. Oct. 7 Anniversary Politics: Israel marked the third anniversary of the Hamas Oct. 7 attack with memorials and renewed strikes in Gaza despite a ceasefire, while Israeli politics ahead of elections keeps tying the war’s failures and lessons to Netanyahu’s campaign. Regional War Pressure: Yemen’s fighting intensified around the Bab el-Mandab Strait as Saudi-backed forces and the Houthis traded claims of major casualties and airstrikes, raising fears of a prolonged conflict. Hezbollah Narrative Building: Hezbollah’s leadership announced an institution to preserve and publish Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s legacy, framing it around Islam, jihad, religious authority, unity, and resistance.

Lebanon-Israel Negotiations: Lebanon is floating a “synchronized stages” withdrawal idea to reduce U.S. pressure, with the Lebanese Army taking over security points under international sponsorship after Israeli pullbacks south of the Litani. Security Arrangements: A planned Oct. 20 military meeting is set to focus on “verifiable security arrangements,” including a monitoring/verification committee and possible pilot zones—though major steps are tied to Israel’s Oct. 27 election. Hezbollah vs. Withdrawal: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem renewed demands for total Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, rejecting any U.S. conditions and insisting the solution is on the battlefield. Lebanon Frontline Incidents: The ICRC mourned the killing of Lebanese Red Cross volunteer Youssef Assaf during a South Lebanon rescue mission, warning parties to protect medical teams and ambulances. Regional Context: Israel’s Oct. 7 anniversary coverage is increasingly election-driven, while Katz warns of a potential “war against the Palestinian Authority” if PA-aligned forces attack settlers—raising the stakes for Lebanon’s security vacuum fears. EU-Morocco Security: The EU and Morocco held a Brussels dialogue on counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and regional stability, including discussion of Lebanon and Syria.

South Lebanon State-Building: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri urged PM Nawaf Salam to move fast on living-cost relief and to activate tenders for southern residents, after Salam’s repeated Nabatieh visits and announcements of 23 tenders (roads, shelters, ambulances, hospitals, power and water work) plus more contracts expected this month, with financing talks underway with the UN, US and the World Bank. Hezbollah–PM De-escalation: Berri also pushed to rein in Hezbollah’s political attacks on Salam, with Salam publicly reaffirming the government’s line on Israel’s withdrawal and restoring state authority in the south. UNIFIL Warning on Israeli Moves: UN peacekeepers told AFP that Israeli forces have advanced into multiple south Lebanon villages including Kfar Kila, Houla, Kfar Shouba, Yaroun and Khiam, as Israel seeks a buffer zone. CIA on Regional Fallout: A classified CIA assessment reportedly warns Israel faces rising risk of civil conflict and even state collapse ahead of the Oct. 27 election, citing economic strain, military spending, settler violence, and the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption dispute—further worsened by war trauma from Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Gaza Ceasefire Pressure: UN chief António Guterres said the Gaza ceasefire has failed to deliver security or sufficient aid and called for it to become permanent ahead of the Oct. 7 anniversary. Surveillance and Tracking Debate: A report highlights research suggesting biological markers could be used for tracking via modified soil bacteria—raising new concerns for Lebanon’s security environment.