AGP Executive Report

UN Peacekeeping & Lebanon’s Security Vacuum: With UNIFIL’s mandate set to expire end of year, Lebanon is pushing for a U.N.-backed successor to avoid a protection and leverage vacuum as Israel and the U.S. press to end the mission. Southern Lebanon Movement Controls: Israel restricted movement in three Christian towns (Rmeish, Debel, Ain Ebel), forcing residents into prearranged UNIFIL/army-escorted convoys via Naqoura. Electricity Crisis: Electricité du Liban has started cutting power to public institutions, municipalities and hospitals over about $258m in unpaid bills, with only a small fraction collected so far. Road Safety Pressure: New figures show Lebanon’s crash toll worsening in 2025, with speeding and distracted driving (including phone use) driving calls for tougher enforcement. Syria-U.S. Sanctions Shift: The U.S. removed Syria from its state sponsor of terrorism list, a major sanctions-relief step welcomed by President al-Sharaa, while Israel signals it will keep forces in the Syrian buffer zone. Israel-Syria Tensions: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz visited Mount Hermon and warned Syria he won’t withdraw while “jihadist threats” persist, prompting Damascus to call the visit illegal. UNRWA Under Fire: UN chief Guterres condemned Israeli forced entry into the UNRWA Qalandia training center in East Jerusalem, saying it unlawfully deprives students of vocational education.

UNIFIL & South Lebanon: UNIFIL reiterated that any Israeli military presence north of the Blue Line violates UN Security Council Resolution 1701, while Lebanese officials keep discussing post-UNIFIL verification and support for the Lebanese Army with Italy. Lebanon State Authority vs Hezbollah: Reporting from south Lebanon highlights how Hezbollah’s social support system is filling gaps left by the state, deepening the political and service divide. UNIFIL Extension Politics: Lebanon’s push to extend UNIFIL continues amid stalled Hezbollah disarmament talks, keeping the “verification” debate central to southern security planning. Regional Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia and France, after MBS’s Paris visit, backed Palestinian statehood and called for Israel’s withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, while also urging diplomacy on Iran. US-Iran Pressure With Gulf Stakes: Washington’s expanded Iran sanctions drive Tehran’s warnings about oil exports and retaliation, raising the risk of spillover into Lebanon and the wider region. Syria Re-entry Signal: The US removed Syria from its state sponsors of terrorism list, with Damascus calling it a step toward reconstruction—an indirect pressure point for Lebanon’s regional environment.

Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israel’s strikes and demolitions in the south continued despite the June ceasefire, including reports of phosphorus munitions around Douha Kfarreman, Tal al-Dabsha and the Ali al-Taher forest, while satellite imagery points to major new damage near the Litani bend and Beaufort Castle. State vs. Hezbollah Control: Lebanese and American officials are watching the Ali al-Taher heights as a test of state authority, with scenarios ranging from Hezbollah handing control to the Lebanese Army to a wider confrontation if talks fail. UNIFIL Verification Debate: The Lebanese Army says it can accept an international verification mechanism only if it stays technically independent while operations remain under Lebanese sovereign control in “pilot zones,” as Israel criticizes army performance and accuses Hezbollah of undermining the framework. US Sanctions on Hezbollah: The US Treasury announced sanctions on 10 people tied to a money-transfer network supporting Hezbollah and redesignated Hezbollah as serving Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force, signaling tighter financial pressure on Lebanon’s political-security landscape. Iran “Economic D-Day” Pressure: Washington warns it will “sever” Iran’s economic lifelines with expanded secondary sanctions as Iran vows not to end the war on “aggressive” terms and threatens countermeasures affecting oil and shipping routes.

UNIFIL & Lebanon-Israel talks: Lebanon is pushing to extend UNIFIL’s mandate as Hezbollah disarmament talks stall, with President Joseph Aoun framing UNIFIL as an “umbrella” for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and weighing options if the mission ends. US-Iran economic escalation: Washington is preparing new sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, calling it an “economic D-Day,” while Tehran warns it will halt all Gulf oil exports if the pressure continues and treats any participation in the US operation as an “act of war.” Lebanon security diplomacy: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called President Joseph Aoun to offer condolences and back humanitarian aid and continued support for the Lebanese army, citing the recently announced ceasefire. Iran-Lebanon political links: Iran’s foreign minister met a Hezbollah-linked Lebanese parliamentary figure, with discussions focused on Israeli aggression and regional coordination. Regional military pressure: Israel ordered IDF to accelerate destruction of “Hezbollah infrastructure” in southern Lebanon, while separate reporting highlights strain on Israel’s ammunition and personnel after years of sustained operations. Lebanon governance & oversight: A report alleges forged Lebanese passports used by IRGC officers, pointing to a wider forgery network reaching into official systems.

Lebanon Domestic Security: Lebanon arrested “Doctor Food” (Georges Hanna Dib), a TikTok food influencer, after authorities alleged narcotics were hidden in branded sweets made for shipment to a Gulf country; the case is linked to a prior life sentence in absentia and follows a raid in Akkar. US-Lebanon Mediation Politics: US envoy Tom Barrack walked back remarks that Israel “still” occupies the Golan, saying it was historical description not a policy shift—an episode that also feeds debate over whether any Lebanon settlement can bypass Hezbollah. South Lebanon Frontline: Israel intensified strikes and demolitions in southern Lebanon, with reporting highlighting the Ali al-Taher area as a key challenge and raising questions about explosives logistics after “pink containers” and large-scale demolition materials were spotted. Hezbollah Internal Strain: A report says Hezbollah’s eastern reserve clans are discussing forming a “Clan and Families Coalition,” reflecting growing doubts about the party’s cost to local security. Regional Diplomacy: Kuwait’s health minister met Lebanon’s ambassador to discuss training, research, and health-infrastructure cooperation, while France prepares talks with Saudi Crown Prince MBS in Paris that are expected to cover energy routes, Iran, Gaza, and developments in Lebanon and Syria. Regional Economic War: Iran’s president warned the country is in an “all-out” economic, military, and security war, as Trump’s “economic warfare” campaign continues to shape regional calculations.

Lebanon Economy: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will contract 6.4% in 2026, citing war-driven collapse in tourism, weaker consumption, disrupted supply chains, higher insecurity, and displacement, with inflation expected to rise to 17.5%. Southern Lebanon Security: Israel carried out fresh strikes across south Lebanon, including 28 airstrikes on the Nabatieh ridge and attacks reported in Tyre, Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun despite the June ceasefire, while UNIFIL reports a sharp rise in Israeli activity. Hezbollah & Sanctions: The U.S. Treasury redesignated Hezbollah as a proxy terrorist organization of Iran and sanctioned a Hezbollah-linked money-courier network moving funds via Türkiye, Lebanon, the UAE, and Iran. Regional Diplomacy: Lebanon’s President Aoun met Pope Leo XIV and discussed UNIFIL’s future and ceasefire implementation, as France and Saudi Arabia reportedly explore ways to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran-U.S. escalation. Iran’s Pressure Campaign: Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned neighboring states that joining the U.S. economic war makes them “enemies,” threatening to block oil exports if pressure deepens. Public Life: In south Lebanon, families are still scrambling to choose schools as registration stays open longer due to ongoing war fears and uncertainty.

Lebanon–Israel Front: President Joseph Aoun returned to Beirut after Vatican and Italy meetings, with Italy signaling willingness to help on post-UNIFIL southern arrangements but no concrete verification or replacement plan agreed; meanwhile Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon near Srbin and Rchaf, as Lebanon warns of sovereignty violations and UNIFIL-linked concerns. Regional Diplomacy: US envoy Tom Barrack said Israel did not warn Washington before striking Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase, raising escalation fears with Türkiye; Jordan and 11 Arab and Islamic states condemned the strike and urged respect for Syria’s sovereignty and UN terms. Economy & Governance: The World Bank projected Lebanon’s 2026 GDP contraction at 6.4% amid war-driven tourism collapse, insecurity, and displacement, while Education Minister Rima Karami reviewed options for postponed baccalaureate exams amid political and security uncertainty. Legal/Political Accountability: Lebanon is weighing whether to extradite former Palestinian envoy Ashraf Dabbour over corruption claims, as the case hinges on documentation from Ramallah. Public Life: A counterfeit gold “Valcambi” logo scandal surfaced in Lebanese markets, prompting arrests and calls for mandatory testing before purchase.

Lebanon Economy Under Strain: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s GDP will contract 6.4% in 2026, blaming the March 2026 conflict escalation for collapsing tourism, weakening consumption, disrupting supply chains, and driving inflation toward 17.5%. Southern Lebanon Security: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says restoring sovereignty in the south means more than deploying troops—Lebanon must rebuild state institutions, services, and reconstruction capacity alongside a “single strong army.” UNIFIL Transition: President Joseph Aoun met Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni in Rome to press for an EU-backed security follow-on after UNIFIL’s planned December 31, 2026 withdrawal, warning of a vacuum as Israel’s attacks continue. US Sanctions and Hezbollah: Hezbollah denounced new US sanctions as an attempt to entrench occupation and undermine Lebanon, while Washington frames the measures around alleged Iranian control. Regional Pressure on Syria: Lebanon joined a broad ministerial condemnation of Israeli strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase, calling them an “extreme escalation” and a violation of sovereignty. Diplomacy vs. Escalation: Aoun and Meloni also discussed the need to pressure Israel to implement the Lebanon-US-Israel framework agreement.

Southern Lebanon Sovereignty Push: PM Nawaf Salam told troops in Tyre that restoring sovereignty requires a capable state and “one strong army,” while Defense Minister Michel Menassa vowed displaced southerners will return home as the government seeks full state authority. Ali al-Taher Escalation: Reports say Israel is intensifying operations around Ali al-Taher hill with airstrikes, drones, and special ground moves, as Hezbollah says it won’t surrender the position and frames any outcome as possible only via a ceasefire and withdrawal. US Sanctions on Hezbollah: Washington imposed fresh sanctions and re-designated Hezbollah as Iran-linked, targeting a cash-transfer network using couriers across Lebanon, Türkiye, the UAE and Iran; Hezbollah rejected the claim as part of a broader campaign. Regional Condemnations Over Syria Strike: Foreign ministers from 12 countries, including Lebanon, condemned Israel’s Abu al-Duhur airbase strike as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and urged steps under international law. Lebanon’s Economic Hit: The World Bank projected Lebanon’s economy will contract 6.4% in 2026 due to the war’s damage to tourism, consumption, supply chains, and displacement.

Southern Lebanon Under Strain: Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit multiple towns and hills across the south overnight and into Friday, including Mansouri, al-Tiri, Hadatha, Tyre area raids, and strikes around Ali al-Taher, as fighting continues despite the ceasefire. US Sanctions & Hezbollah-Iran Link: Washington issued fresh sanctions on a Hezbollah cash network and re-designated Hezbollah as operating “in service to the Iranian regime” under the IRGC-Quds Force, framing the group as an Iranian proxy. Lebanon–Saudi Trade Restart: Lebanon and Saudi Arabia relaunched overland exports via Masnaa Border Crossing, with a new scanner activated to speed goods and tighten contraband detection. Diplomacy at the Vatican: President Joseph Aoun met Pope Leo XIV and Vatican officials, with Rome expressing “serious concerns” about implementing the US-mediated Lebanon-Israel framework while Beirut urged continued pressure for Israeli withdrawal. Regional Flashpoint in Syria: Israel warned Turkey against “dangerous adventures” in Syria after strikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase, citing alleged Turkish military expansion. UN Humanitarian Warning: UN agencies reported Gaza’s shelter crisis worsening and noted continued strikes and demolitions in Lebanon, underscoring the broader regional humanitarian squeeze.

Israel–Turkey Syria Tensions: Israel says it struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase after intelligence that Turkey planned to expand its military presence there, while Ankara rejects the claims and warns it may retaliate across the region. Southern Lebanon Escalation: Overnight airstrikes and artillery hit multiple areas including Ali al-Taher heights and villages near Nabatieh, as Lebanon and Israel negotiations appear stalled. Lebanon–Israel Talks, Vatican Angle: President Joseph Aoun met Pope Leo XIV in Rome, pressing for full Israeli withdrawal as talks with Tel Aviv remain without a confirmed next round. UNIFIL Handover/Force Debate: UNIFIL continues transferring positions to the Lebanese Army, while Lebanon argues international presence is still essential to prevent a vacuum in the south. US Sanctions on Hezbollah: The US redesignated Hezbollah as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” tied to Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force and added sanctions on a cash-smuggling network. Lebanon–Iran Friction: Lebanon’s foreign minister demanded Iran stop interfering in internal affairs before normalizing relations. US–Lebanon Finance: The US Embassy welcomed Lebanon’s Banking Resolution Law and urged progress on the “Gap Law.” Regional Diplomacy & Economy: Qatar and Egypt signed four cooperation agreements, while a major UAE business delegation is set to visit Lebanon to explore investment in infrastructure and energy-linked projects.

Lebanon-Syria Accountability: Lebanon extradited former Assad-era Major General Adel Issa to Damascus, the first such handover since Assad’s fall, after Beirut questioned him over alleged murder, torture and incitement crimes tied to Syria’s civil war. Southern Lebanon Escalation: Israel carried out overnight strikes and artillery shelling across southern Lebanon, including the Ali al-Taher heights and areas near Nabatieh, as talks continue on border security and “pilot zones” with Hezbollah. Israel-Hezbollah in Beirut: Israel’s military said it struck a Hezbollah member in Beirut, underscoring how the conflict keeps spilling into urban areas even as negotiations run. UN Humanitarian Warning: The UN relief chief warned that cheap drones are enabling “dystopian” warfare where aid workers can be targeted from a distance, calling out impunity and accountability gaps. Regional Syria Power Struggle: Coverage of “new Syria” highlights how Damascus’ reconstruction is being squeezed by rival intelligence and military interests, with Israel and Türkiye increasingly at odds over Syria’s future. US-Iran Pressure With Gulf Impact: Trump announced sweeping economic measures against Iran and reiterated Hormuz-related pressure, while the UAE reportedly halted trade and financial transactions with Tehran after missile accusations.

Lebanon–Israel War Update: Lebanon’s Health Ministry says at least 4,348 people have been killed and 12,307 injured since Israel’s offensive began in March, with deaths concentrated in South Lebanon, Mount Lebanon, Nabatiyé and Beirut, and hospitals damaged amid continued strikes despite a ceasefire framework. UN/International Pressure: Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy condemned Israeli strikes on Syria’s Abu Al-Duhur airbase as “provocative and unjustified,” urging UN Security Council action to stop escalation. Diplomacy & Lebanon’s Sovereignty: Canada’s secretary of state for international development Randeep Sarai visited Beirut to announce new humanitarian aid exceeding $50m and condemned Israel’s “unlawful invasion,” while Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry also denounced the Syria airbase strike as a breach of sovereignty and international law. Southern Lebanon Negotiations: Speaker Nabih Berri told an American Task Force delegation that only Trump can compel Israel to end the war and withdraw to the international border, enabling the Lebanese Army to deploy south of the Litani. Regional Escalation Watch: UAE suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran after missile attacks, while Iran rejected the UAE’s claims and warned of further escalation if the US tightens pressure. UNESCO & Heritage: UNESCO chief Khaled El Enany met President Joseph Aoun after five southern Lebanese castles were added to the World Heritage in Danger list, highlighting risks from ongoing Israeli attacks. US–Lebanon Electricity File: The US is studying how it could support Lebanon’s electricity sector after President Aoun raised the issue in Washington.

UNIFIL & Lebanon Talks: President Joseph Aoun is set to fly to Rome for talks on the future of UN peacekeeping in southern Lebanon as the mandate nears its end, with Lebanon pushing for an extension and a “second choice” formula that keeps international forces alongside the Lebanese Army. Parliamentary Timing: Senior Lebanese officials say leaders agreed to postpone the May parliamentary elections and extend parliament’s term by two years, pending approval by a majority of MPs. South Lebanon Security: Israeli shelling and airstrikes continued across southern Lebanon, including reported attacks around Ali al-Taher Hill and operations in towns such as Mansouri and Haddatha, while UN warnings flagged rising risks to civilians. Regional Pressure on Iran: Iran handed the US a list of demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump insists there are “no talks” and the strait remains open—while the UAE suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran after missile detections. Humanitarian Strain: UNHCR says about 860,000 people have returned home, but roughly 360,000 remain displaced and services are still failing, with fresh strikes triggering new movements.

UNIFIL Mandate Talks: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to travel to Rome to discuss the future of UN peacekeeping in the south as the UNIFIL mandate nears expiry, with Lebanon pushing for an extension and warning against any security vacuum while Italy and France float a multinational replacement. Southern Lebanon Displacement: UNHCR says Lebanon’s displacement crisis is still “far from being concluded” despite 850,000+ returns, citing damaged homes, weak services, fragile security, and ongoing airstrike risk. Lebanon-Iraq Energy Diplomacy: In Beirut, PM Nawaf Salam chaired talks with Iraqi officials on reviving the Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, including border and safety upgrades so Lebanon can act as a storage and re-export hub. Regional Military Pressure: Reports continue of rising Israeli military activity and escalation risks across southern Lebanon, while UN observers warn civilians are paying the price. Hezbollah Mobilization Debate: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem’s remarks about anger “erupting” have sparked questions inside Lebanon over whether street mobilization is being prepared.

UNIFIL Watch: UNIFIL says Israeli fire in southern Lebanon has surged, averaging 137 projectiles a day between Aug 5-16, with civilians again displaced and forced to change routines; UN Security Council Resolution 1701 remains the stability framework, while President Joseph Aoun backs extending UNIFIL and keeping an international presence. Lebanon-Iraq Energy Diplomacy: Lebanese officials in Beirut met an Iraqi delegation to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, positioning Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub; talks covered border readiness, tanker logistics, and safety standards to attract investment. US-Iran Deadlock With Regional Spillover: As the 60-day US-Iran MoU deadline expired, Washington rejected any truce extension and Iran signaled a shift toward a “fully offensive” posture, keeping Hormuz and regional tensions—felt in Lebanon—front and center. US Congress Pressure on Hezbollah Disarmament: A bipartisan US congressional staff delegation met Lebanese leaders and security officials in Beirut to assess Lebanon’s security challenges under the US-backed framework, including Hezbollah disarmament and Israel’s gradual withdrawal.